Afghan flood death toll climbs to 120

KABUL, Afghanistan - Heavy rain again battered remote villages in western Afghanistan already devastated by flooding, as the death toll rose to 120, officials said Monday.

Aid workers delivered several tons of food and aid to people in Badghis province, said Habibullah Murghabi, the head of a government-appointed disaster committee. The delivery had taken more than two days of travel by donkey and horse to reach flood-affected villages in the mountainous region.

Murghabi said the death toll in Balamurghab and Ghormach districts had risen to 62, while 92 people were reported missing.

"The roads are still bad, and last night there was heavy rain again. It's still raining now," Murghabi said by telephone from Badghis.

Heavy rain Thursday triggered flash floods that inundated several villages in Badghis. Some 50,000 families live in the inundated area.

Other affected areas in the west include Farah province, where at least 18 people have died in recent days, said provincial police chief Gen. Sayed Aga Saqib. One village of eight houses had been washed away, he said.

Floods also hit the southern province of Uruzgan over the weekend, killing 40 people and destroying hundreds of homes in four districts, said Qayum Qayumi, the governor's spokesman.

45 dead, thousands homeless from heavy Sri Lanka seasonal rains

COLOMBO (AFP) - At least 45 people have died from floods and mudslides caused by heavy seasonal rains in Sri Lanka that left 91,000 families temporarily homeless, the National Disaster Management Centre said.

The number of people drowned in the past three weeks was at 30 while 15 were buried alive in mudslides, N.D. Hettiarachchi, director of the centre said.

"Most of the families have gone back to their homes, but heavy rains in the past two days affected another 8,300 families who had to abandon their homes and move to high ground," Hettiarachchi told AFP on Monday.

He said the government spent half a million dollars to provide immediate relief to the affected people while about 2.7 million dollars would be needed to rebuild the flood-damaged homes in the central and northwest regions of the island.

The latest flooding is the worst natural disaster since the December 2004 tsunami that killed an estimated 31,000 people and displaced a million people along much of the island's coastlines.

Sri Lanka depends on monsoon rains for farming as well as for power generation. However, the seasonal rains also cause property damage and loss of life in low-lying areas.

The two main monsoon seasons in Sri Lanka are from May to September and December to February and rains also lash different parts of the island between October and November and again between March and April.

Global warming said killing some species

WASHINGTON — Animal and plant species have begun dying off or changing sooner than predicted because of global warming, a review of hundreds of research studies contends.
These fast-moving adaptations come as a surprise even to biologists and ecologists because they are occurring so rapidly.

At least 70 species of frogs, mostly mountain-dwellers that had nowhere to go to escape the creeping heat, have gone extinct because of climate change, the analysis says. It also reports that between 100 and 200 other cold-dependent animal species, such as penguins and polar bears are in deep trouble.

"We are finally seeing species going extinct," said University of Texas biologist Camille Parmesan, author of the study. "Now we've got the evidence. It's here. It's real. This is not just biologists' intuition. It's what's happening."

Her review of 866 scientific studies is summed up in the journal Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution and Systematics.

Parmesan reports seeing trends of animal populations moving northward if they can, of species adapting slightly because of climate change, of plants blooming earlier, and of an increase in pests and parasites.

Parmesan and others have been predicting such changes for years, but even she was surprised to find evidence that it's already happening; she figured it would be another decade away.

Just five years ago biologists, though not complacent, figured the harmful biological effects of global warming were much farther down the road, said Douglas Futuyma, professor of ecology and evolution at the State University of New York in Stony Brook.

"I feel as though we are staring crisis in the face," Futuyma said. "It's not just down the road somewhere. It is just hurtling toward us. Anyone who is 10 years old right now is going to be facing a very different and frightening world by the time that they are 50 or 60."

While over the past several years studies have shown problems with certain species, animal populations or geographic areas, Parmesan's is the first comprehensive analysis showing the big picture of global-warming induced changes, said Chris Thomas, a professor of conservation biology at the University of York in England.

While it's impossible to prove conclusively that the changes are the result of global warming, the evidence is so strong and other supportable explanations are lacking, Thomas said, so it is "statistically virtually impossible that these are just chance observations."

The most noticeable changes in plants and animals have to do with earlier springs, Parmesan said. The best example can be seen in earlier cherry blossoms and grape harvests and in 65 British bird species that in general are laying their first eggs nearly nine days earlier than 35 years ago.

Parmesan said she worries most about the cold-adapted species, such as emperor penguins that have dropped from 300 breeding pairs to just nine in the western Antarctic Peninsula, or polar bears, which are dropping in numbers and weight in the Arctic.

The cold-dependent species on mountaintops have nowhere to go, which is why two-thirds of a certain grouping of frog species have already gone extinct, Parmesan said.

Populations of animals that adapt better to warmth or can move and live farther north are adapting better than other populations in the same species, Parmesan said.

"We are seeing a lot of evolution now," Parmesan said. However, no new gene mutations have shown themselves, not surprising because that could take millions of years, she said.

IRAQ: Thousands forced out by floods

BAGHDAD, 21 November (IRIN) - Heavy rains, thunderstorms and enormous mudslides in Iraq's northern autonomous region of Kurdistan have submerged vast areas and made nearly 3,000 families homeless, the Iraqi Red Crescent Society (IRCS) said on Tuesday.

Those affected blame the government for not heeding their repeated calls for better housing.

"We warned both the central and regional governments many times that we are vulnerable in these houses and demanded for their urgent help," said Haji Kemeran Ali, a 66-year-old farmer who is now living in a small tent with his eight-member family in Sulaimaniyah.

Mazin Abdullah Salom, an IRCS spokesman in Baghdad, told IRIN that nearly 3,000 families, about 18,000 individuals, had been forced to flee their demolished homes because of flash floods which began on 25 October and went on until early November.

Salom added that these people were now living in camps and that IRCS volunteers had distributed aid to them, including food, tents, blankets, jerry-cans, heaters, mattresses, clothes, carpets, detergents and shoes.

The International Committee of the Red Crescent (ICRC) in Iraq said that at least 20 people were killed and dozens injured in the floods while infrastructure was severely damaged.

"Bridges, houses, and schools were flattened; hydropower stations were destroyed; livestock was decimated; thousands of fruit trees were washed away and agricultural land was made unusable," the ICRC said in a statement.

"It is a desperate situation for those who lost all their basic means of a livelihood. Much more assistance will be required in order to come back to normal life," said Hans Peter Giess, the ICRC relief coordinator who visited some of the most affected areas and met with villagers.

The affected families were poor farmers and were living on mountain cliffs in poorly constructed houses, mainly made of mud or wood, he said. With low and limited income, housing has become a serious problem for many local residents in Iraq's northern Kurdistan region.

"They [central and regional governments] have turned deaf ears to our calls. They have to do something for us. They have to stop putting money into just their pockets and they have to stop forgetting poor people," said farmer Ali, who lost his one-storey house and all his cattle.

HIV infections on rise in all regions- U.N. report

GENEVA, Nov 21 (Reuters) - HIV infections are on the rise in all regions and in China the deadly virus is gradually spreading from high-risk groups to the general population, the United Nations said on Tuesday.

Nearly 40 million adults and children are infected worldwide and the most striking increases in new cases have been in east Asia and in eastern Europe/central Asia, mainly due to drug use and unsafe sex, UNAIDS and the World Health Organisation said.

Sub-Saharan Africa still bears the brunt of the AIDS scourge, with 24.7 million or nearly two-thirds of people living with HIV globally, according to the report.

"In the past two years, the number of people living with HIV increased in every region in the world," said the report which largely drew comparisons with adjusted figures for 2004 rather than 2005, due to changes in methodology and data.

China's drug-fuelled HIV epidemic, which accounts for about half of the country's estimated 650,000 infections, has reached "alarming proportions", the agencies said in a joint annual report "2006 AIDS Epidemic Update".

"With HIV spreading gradually from most-at-risk populations to the general population, the number of HIV infections in women is growing too," the report said of China.

Of the 2.9 million global deaths from AIDS last year, 2.1 million occurred in Africa, heart of the 25-year-old epidemic.

Some 4.3 million people across the globe became infected with HIV this year, with a heavy concentration among young people, bringing the total number of people with the killer disease to an estimated 39.5 million. Africa recorded 2.8 million new infections this year.

DIVERGENT AFRICAN TRENDS

Some countries including Uganda are seeing a resurgence of infection rates after having successfully reduced them, according to the report.

"This is worrying -- as we know, increased HIV prevention programmes in these countries have shown progress in the past -- Uganda being a prime example," said UNAIDS Executive Director Peter Piot. "We need to greatly intensify life-saving prevention efforts while we expand HIV treatment programmes".

The report cited "evidence of diminishing or stable HIV spreadin most east African and west African countries", while epidemics continue to grow in Mozambique, South Africa and Swaziland.

"One third of all people with HIV globally live in southern Africa and 34 percent of all deaths due to AIDS in 2006 occurred there," it noted.

In South Africa, where an estimated 5.5 million people have HIV, the epidemic continues unabated, suggesting the disease's prevalence has not yet reached a plateau, it said.

But even stability of epidemics in some countries masks high rates of new HIV infections and AIDS deaths in places including Lesotho -- where one in four adults have the disease.

Life expectancy for women in Zimbabwe is now among the lowest in the world at 34 years, while for men it is 37 years.

HIGH-RISK BEHAVIOUR

In Asia, an estimated 8.6 million people are living with HIV, an increase of nearly one million, and 630,000 people died from AIDS-related illnesses in the vast region this year.

India, where the epidemic appears to be stable or diminishing in some parts while growing modestly in others, has 5.7 million infected people, mainly through heterosexual sex.

In China, where the epidemic began in rural areas, the report noted concerns that its large number of migrants (an estimated 120-150 million) could spread the virus even further.

"HIV outbreaks among men who have sex with men are now becoming evident in Cambodia, China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Thailand and Vietnam," the report said.

Yet very few had national AIDS programmes which adequately address the role of sex between men in spreading epidemics.

Younger HIV epidemics in eastern Europe and central Asia continue to grow, especially in Ukraine which has the highest HIV adult prevalence in all of Europe, estimated at 1.5 percent.

In Russia, where 80 percent of an estimated 940,000 people with HIV are under 30, drug use is the main mode of spread.

In Latin America, two-thirds of the estimated 1.7 million people living with HIV reside in the four largest countries: Brazil, Mexico, Colombia and Argentina. In the United States, an estimated 1.2 million were living with the virus in 2005.

Northeast faces cold winter, but stocks buffer

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Top forecasters predict normal to colder-than-normal weather for the U.S. Northeast this winter, but high fuel stockpiles may buffer consumers in the world's biggest heating oil region from price spikes.

A Reuters poll showed temperatures for the United States are expected to average above normal for the December to February period, but the densely populated cities in the East will be below normal.

The Northeast is home to about 80 percent of U.S. heating oil consumption. Businesses and households in the Midwest tend to favor natural gas as a heating fuel.

While the El Nino weather phenomenon has experts mixed on when the colder weather may hit, a repeat of last year's record heating bills is unlikely as stockpiles of distillate fuels are about 6 percent above year-ago levels.

"The bottom line is it comes down to very comfortable stocks," said Mike Wittner, head of energy research for Calyon Corporate and Investment Bank. "It is still hard for me to at this point in time see real tightness and a real surge in the heating oil cracks to take place."

Heating oil prices surged last year as the U.S. energy sector struggled to restore operations following from damage caused by Hurricane Katrina.

Meanwhile, the warmer weather in the rest of the country could spell soft demand for natural gas.

"Natural gas inventories are finishing the injection season at very high levels, and the generally warmer December outlook should be moderately bearish for natural gas prices," said WSI Corp. in a report this week.

Gas prices spiked to a record last December, but have fallen off sharply as mild weather boosted inventories.

Forecasters said they are watching the activity of the El Nino phenomenon -- an abnormal warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean that tends to affect weather across North America -- for further direction.

"We've discovered that in situations when the El Nino continued to strengthen throughout the winter periods of December to January, those tend to be warmer winters," said Matt Rogers, manager of energy weather for Earthsat.

"In cases when it weakened in December, you had a colder January to February," he added.

Forecasters are mixed over when colder weather will arrive in the Northeast, with some predicting cool temperatures early in the season and others toward the tail end of winter.

Analysts say a cold December and an early draw on stocks would have a greater influence on heating oil prices.

"Early cold counts more than late cold," said Wittner.

Indonesia's Aceh needs three more years to rebuild

SINGAPORE (AFP) - Indonesia's Aceh needs three more years to rebuild itself after the December 2004 tsunami, the head of the province's reconstruction agency said.

Kuntoro Mangkusubroto told AFP in an interview that there has been "very good" progress but much more needs to be done.

"There is still a lot more that hasn't yet been built. Because of this, reconstruction will go on for another three years," Mangkusubroto said on the sidelines of a regional Red Cross conference.

The tsunami destroyed more than 800 kilometres (500 miles) of Aceh's coastline, left more than 168,000 people dead or missing, destroyed livelihoods and flattened infrastructure and houses.

According to schedule, 48,000 homes out of the needed 128,000 have already been built, said Mangkusubroto, director of the Aceh Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Agency (BRR).

"What we planned, we've been able to carry out," he said, also citing progress in rebuilding the province's ports.

In April a 7.0 million Singapore dollar (4.5 million US) pier, funded by the Singapore Red Cross, opened in the west coast town of Meulaboh.

"But what's even better is that people's livelihoods are going very well," he said. "Eighty percent of the paddy fields have started production."

In September about 1,000 tsunami survivors laid siege to the BRR headquarters, complaining of the slow disbursement of aid.

"They are acting like they are a king and we are the subjects. There is no realization of the projects in the field," tsunami survivor Zulkarnai, who is living in barracks near the provincial capital, said at the time.

Mangkusubroto said most of the demonstrators were landless and had rented their homes before the disaster.

"It's true this is a group of people who have nothing," he said, explaining that their needs would be addressed next year.

He said they were among about 50,000 individuals still living in temporary barracks housing.

The British-based aid agency Oxfam on Friday called for the urgent rehousing of about 70,000 tsunami survivors still living in temporary shelter.

Oxfam director Barbara Stocking said that although reconstruction efforts had picked up speed, it was vital that relocation took place soon, as poor sanitation and the approach of the rainy season heightened the threat of disease.

"It's true there is a great deal that needs to be finished. Everybody wants it finished today," said Mangkusubroto. "But a lot has been damaged so we still need three years... 128,000 houses cannot be built in one or two years."

Mangkusubroto said the rains should not worsen the condition of those living in temporary housing because none are in tents any more.

"But for us, the rainy season means there will be a lot of logistical problems... It's tough because the roads become damaged and things like that."

Construction of a vital west coast road linking the provincial capital Banda Aceh with Meulaboh has barely begun nearly two years after the US Agency for International Development (USAID) took on the task.

It is the largest reconstruction project planned but has been delayed by wrangling over its route and land purchases.

Mangkusubroto told AFP the biggest obstacle he faces is delivering building materials to where they are needed.

He said his agency has vowed to eradicate corruption in the projects it handles but that has proven difficult in a country named as among the world's most graft-prone by watchdog Transparency International.

With about 4,000 individual reconstruction projects, the agency has to expect a problem with "one or two" of them, he said.