PAKISTAN: Landslides

ISLAMABAD , 21 March 2007 (IRIN) - Landslides triggered by heavy rains have killed at least 40 people across Pakistani-administered Kashmir, an aid official confirmed on Wednesday.

At least 27 people, mostly women, died and 16 were injured when a landslide ripped through Doba Syedan village in the Jhelum Valley on late Tuesday, according to John Sampson, head of the International Organization for Migration's (IOM) sub-office in Muzaffarabad, capital of Pakistani-administered Kashmir.

Landslides killed 10 people in the Bagh district and three died in separate incidents in Muzaffarabad, Sampson added.

In another incident, a landslide buried 22 people in their houses on Tuesday. Officials are expressing fears that they might not be alive, but there has been no confirmation of that.

Apart from the deaths caused by landslides, about 350 families have been left stranded in a remote village in Jhelum Valley at an altitude of more than 1,500 metres. Many roads in the area have been blocked due to a series of landslides following heavy rains that started on Sunday evening.

"This [Wednesday] morning, an emergency helicopter operation was planned to evacuate and shift the stranded families to a safe area, but continuing bad weather conditions are preventing us from taking any active steps," said Sampson.

The Pakistani military, together with international aid agencies, have shifted endangered families away from potential landslide risk areas.

"Still, we have not been able to lift them to a completely safe place. But the agencies are trying to assist them with food and non-food items," Sampson said.

In the Tariqabad area of Muzzaffarabad city, 160 families were evacuated after a landslide on Wednesday morning.

Survivors of the devastating earthquake of October 2005, the majority of whom live in temporary shelters, have also been affected by the recent bad weather.

"Several tented camps of quake-displaced people were flooded after three days' of continuous rain and we have been providing them with new tents, blankets, hygiene kits and other non-food items," Arshad Aziz, field coordinator for the Norwegian Refugee Council's camp support team, told IRIN from Muzaffarabad.

The second winter after the October 2005 earthquake was more severe than the previous one, according to meteorologists.

"This time, there were more rainy days across northern Pakistan, including the earth-quake affected areas," said Aamir Warsi, a senior meteorologist at Pakistan Meteorological Department in Islamabad. "Also, the spells were widespread and more intense."

According to the Met office, the winter rainy season, which started in early December 2006, is expected to continue until the end of March.

Weather experts expect more natural disasters

MADRID, Spain - Global warming is likely to bring more tidal waves, floods and hurricanes, leading meteorologists said on Monday.

"What we know is that global warming is very likely to lead in the future to more frequent tidal waves," the secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) told a news conference ahead of a meeting in Madrid on Monday.

"Heavy precipitation events are very likely to become more frequent ... and it's likely that hurricanes and cyclones will become more intense," Michel Jarraud said.

He was speaking at the start of a four day conference of the WMO, a United Nations specialized agency for weather, climate and water.

The WMO's President Alexander Bedritsky said flooding in mid and higher latitudes in Western Europe had already become more common.

In Russia the number of damaging weather incidents logged in a year now averages more than one a day, said Bedritsky, who is also head of the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, Roshydromet.

"There's a constant increase of around 6 percent a year," he said.

A draft survey by top U.N. climate scientists is due for release in Brussels on April 6. It says climate change, widely blamed on the burning of fossil fuels, is already underway with impacts ranging from melting glaciers to earlier than normal plant growth in spring.

Meteorologists must increasingly consider climate change projections in their forecasting, former WMO president John Zillman told the Madrid conference, which is due to publish the conclusions of its four day meeting on Thursday.